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Limit PT Auto-Rate Discussion - Live Poker Forums

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Limit PT Auto-Rate Discussion

Postby Tiburon » Fri Jun 24, 2005 1:53 pm

from

PreFlop Indicators - VP$IP and PreFlop Raise%
A player's VP$IP percentage is one of best indicators as to what type of player he is. By interpreting this number you can get a good idea of how tight or loose he is, and what types of cards he is likely to play. To get an idea of what groups of hands correspond to what %, refer to this table:

GroupHands/Number of Combinations % seen
Big Pocket Pairs AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT 6+6+6+6+6=30 2.26
Big Cards AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, AT 16+16+16+16+16=80 6.03
Other Broadway Cards (suited) KJs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs 4+4+4+4+4=20 1.51
Other Broadway Cards (unsuited) KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT 12+12+12+12+12=60 4.52
Mid Pocket Pairs 99, 88, 77, 66 6+6+6+6=24 1.81
A-x suited A9s, A8s, A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s 4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4=32 2.41
Suited Connectors T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s 4+4+4+4+4=20 1.51
Low Pocket Pairs 55, 44, 33, 22 6+6+6+6=24 1.81
A-x (offsuit) A9, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2 12+12+12+12+12+12+12+12=96 7.24
Small Blind Calls (N/A) 10.0


Lets see how to use the above table to analyze a tight player that shows a VP$IP number of 18%, and a PreFlop Raise of 3.5%. To make 18% for VP$IP, this player is probably playing Big Pocket Pairs, Big Cards, Other Broadway Cards (suited), and half of the Other Broadway Cards (unsuited). If you add the percentages together, you get 2.26+6.03+1.51+2.26=12.06. Assuming this player calls about half of the small blinds, that adds another 5%. We arrive at 17.06% which is very close to his VP$IP of 18%. His PreFlop Raise of 3.5% indicates that he is probably only raising Big Pocket Pairs, and AK.

Now let's analyze a loose player that shows a VP$IP of 50% and PreFlop Raise of 15%. To get a VP$IP of 50%, this player must be playing every hand listed in the table, and calling every small blind. This still only adds up to about 38%, so he is probably playing some unsuited connectors and K-x hands as well. This type of player can be holding almost any 2 cards - a losing formula. A PreFlop Raise of 10% means he is likely raising with Big Pocket Pairs, Big Cards, all Broadway Cards, and some Mid Pocket Pairs.
The following chart shows how tight and loose typical players are at a typical High Limit game:

Image

To read this chart, pick a VP$IP number on the x-axis, such as 0.30. The data point has a y-value of 0.55. This means that 55% of players have a lower VP$IP (are tighter), and 45% have a higher VP$IP (are looser). If you pick a VP$IP of 0.18, you'll see that only 12% of players are tighter than this. I like to use 0.18 as my "Loose" threshold, and 0.33 as my tight threshold in Options. This means players that are in the tightest 12% of all players will show up as red, and the loosest 36% will show up as green.
This chart was based on real data from our database, over a sample of 10,096 players that have played 200 hands or more. It includes games from $5/10 to $30/60 on tables with 7 or more players.

PostFlop Aggression
Aggression is defined as (Bet% + Raise%)/Call%. PostFlop aggression combines the aggression ratings for the Flop, Turn and River. It is computed by (Bet% + Raise% for Flop+Turn+River) divided by ( Call% for Flop+Turn+River). The following chart shows how aggressive typical players are at a low limit table:

Image

According to this chart, PostFlop Aggresion of 1.3 is the cut off point. 50% of players are more aggressive than this, and 50% are less aggressive. I like to consider players above 2.0 to be clear-cut aggressive and players below 1.0 to be clear-cut passive. Remember - aggressive players are much more likely to be bluffing or semi-bluffing when betting and raising.
Last edited by Tiburon on Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:57 am, edited 4 times in total.
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VP$IP Discussion based on above data

Postby Tiburon » Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:27 pm

Based upon the statistical analysis and the graphy above, here are the percentile ranks for VP$IP:

%ile VP$IP
10th 17%
20th 20%
25th 22%
30th 23%
40th 27%
50th 29.5%
60th 32%
70th 36%
75th 39.5%
80th 41%
90th 49%

The 17% VP$IP player above is therefore likely playing the following:
Big pairs (2.26%)+Big cards (6.03%)+Mid pairs (1.81%)+Low pairs (1.81%)+Suited Broadway cards (1.51%)+and Axs (2.41%). With a similar number from the SB, that will yield a VP$IP of about 17%.

The 20% VP$IP player likely adds some offsuit Broadway cards and the occasional large suited connectors.

As you climb through the 20's, more offsuit Broadway cards and suited connectors are added, along with more calls from the SB, and as you get closer to 30%, offsuit aces get mixed in as well.

30's would indicate suited two-gappers, and as the number increases toward 40, the player will likely play any two suited cards, and call any two from the SB.

I think therefore, that a solid guideline for small-stakes limit holdem is the following:

Tight: VP$IP < 17.5%
Semi-Loose: VP$IP 17.51%-29.99%
Loose: VP$IP > 30.00%
Extra Loose: VP$IP > 45%

This should place about 12.5% of players in the Tight category, about 50% in the Semi-Loose category, about 22.5% of players in the Loose category, and about 15% in the Extra Loose Category.
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Postby Tiburon » Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:33 pm

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Postby Tiburon » Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:25 pm

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Postby striker2550 » Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:01 pm

I do not think, therefore I am not.
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Postby Tiburon » Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:57 pm

There was a thread here somewhere about pre-flop raising. Somebody (probably piers) mentioned that ideally a player is raising with 1/4 of the hands they are playing. That's more important I think than the raw number.

I also think we need to seperate the good weak/tight from the bad weak tight.

Maybe the good weak/tight will have that W$SD 67.00% to 99.00% line as well as second priority, where the poor weak tight will have the Fold to River Bet line as > 67.00%.

So Priority Category 5 would be split to:

5) Good Weak/Tight-
WtSD 1.00% to 24.99%
W$SD 67.00% to 99.00%

6) Poor Weak/Tight
WtSD 1.00% to 24.99%
Fold to River Bet > 67.00%

Thoughts?
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Postby Tiburon » Fri Jun 24, 2005 9:02 pm

So to summarize to date:


1:Extra Loose (money bag)
VP$IP > 45%
2:Calling Station (phone)
PFA 0.01 to 1.00
WtSD 35.00% to 99.00%
VP$IP > 30%
3: Showdown Muppet (happy face)
W$SD 1.00% to 32.99%
WtSD > 15.00%
4:Ultra Aggressor (bomb)
AF-F > 2.75
AF-T > 1.75
AF-R > 1.75
5: Good Weak/Tight (triangle w/exclamation point)
WtSD 1.00% to 24.99%
W$SD 67.00% to 99.00%
6: Poor Weak/Tight (elephant)
WtSD 1.00% to 24.99%
Fold to River Bet > 67.00%
7: Semi-Loose Aggressive (Frown)
VP$IP 17.51%-29.99%
AF-Total > 1.80
8: Loose Aggressive (Taz)
VP$IP > 30.00%
AF-Total > 1.80
9: Tight Aggressive (Eagle)
VP$IP <17.50%
AF- Total > 1.80
10: Loose Passive (Fish)
VP$IP > 30.00%
AF-Total <1.25
11: Tight Passive (Rock)
VP$IP < 17.50%
AF-Total <1.25
12: Semi-Loose Passive (Mouse)
VP$IP 17.51% to 29.99%
AF-Total <1.25
Semi-Tight Neutral (Dice)
VP$IP < 25.00%
AF-Total 1.25 to 1.80
Semi-Loose Neutral (Question Mark)
VP$IP >25.00 %
AF-Total 1.25 to 1.80

Comments? I chose 1.80 for aggressive because it put about 25% of players into the category according to Poker Edge information. I chose 1.25 for passive because it put about 40% of players into the passive category. Most players are more passive, especially at lower limits. Otherwise they were more arbitrary than anything else.

I'm going to try these out and see where I get.
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Postby Tiburon » Sat Jun 25, 2005 1:23 pm

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Postby striker2550 » Sat Jun 25, 2005 4:41 pm

I dont have anything to add yet but so far I like the preflop tight/loose numbers.
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Postby voxx » Sun Jun 26, 2005 1:31 pm

This is great work guys.. I only play limit and have been using Excessions rules upto now as I wasn't happy with the default ones and never got round to tweaking them to suit purely limit.

Any chance that you can post or put up a link to these rules set out in the import format. :lol:
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Postby Tiburon » Sun Jun 26, 2005 6:15 pm

I've actually just begun to do the research work. I'm updating the discussion here as much as possible, and thinking out loud as much as I can to ignite debate.
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Postby jively » Mon Jun 27, 2005 9:30 am

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Postby Tiburon » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:18 am

"...Every time you cold call, god kills a puppy."
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Postby Tiburon » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:34 am

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Postby Tiburon » Mon Jun 27, 2005 11:56 am

Continuing on, I was also surprised to find out the following in regards to post-flop aggression:

Medians:
Flop: 0.75
Turn: 0.80
River: 0.60
Total: 0.73

This floored me. Now we have to filter out the aggressives, and break them down further.

The 65th percentile was around 1.4 (highest group over 1 was 1.0-1.2), so I think that might be our starting point. Any player with a AF-Total (excluding pre-flop) over 1.5 should be considered aggressive. This indicates that a player post-flop will bet or raise 50% more than they will call. It's a nice round number, and we can use it as a starting point.

Aggressive >1.40
Passive <1.00
Neutral 1.00-1.40

No revelations here.

I think we need to differentiate the showdown muppets from the solid players at this point. I've somewhat decided to absorb the showdown muppet into the aggressives a bit. I think it's very important to know if a player is aggressive post-flop, will he/she take the hand to showdown? In my analysis, the median WtSD was 33.33%. Since tables are looser, and there are a ton of players (37%) that are over 40, I think that we should set our number for this at 39.99%:

Solid Player WtSD < 39.99%
Muppet WtSD >40.00%

This concept was to bring the showdown muppet into the rules, but that muppets aren't always just LPPs, especially in limit.

Discuss away![/url]
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