Ok. Looks like you may have an idea of what your doing. Carry on.

One of the key factors I use though (public %), shows over 80% currently on KC. This could change by gametime, but road teams with over 75% public backing are 5-16 ATS so far. I've also been following a guy from Sports Insights. He comes out with a column picking 3 games every Friday. He has generally hit 55%+ over the years, but 15-9 this year. He has Miami, Oakland, and Arizona this week. I also use something called Composite Outplay factor which takes into account the difference in points scored and given up vs what a team's opponents have averaged scoring and giving up and then add in a home field advantage number. Most of the time this just tells me that a favorite should be a bigger favorite. I only really use it though when it gives me a dog of a FG or more that should be favored. Shows me Miami, St. Louis, Chicago could all be favored by a point or 2 this week, but I have to wait and see if any of these lines are +3 or more. I combine these with a couple of other factors I use, but if I went into everything, this would end up being an extremely long post. Your methods sound very interesting as well.

I believe the books know/use EVERYTHING, or at least everything they need to know and use. They aren't necessarily out to beat everyone, they just need to make their vig. In their perfect world, 50% of the players would be on each side.

Pretty slow on the poker front this week, hovering right about even since last Saturday. I went out on Saturday and played some 3/6 LHE, got runner, runnered to death for -$200. EM had her own troubles, -$100. I made it up in cash game and SNG play online this week, but no major wins to speak of. I did get PTO up and running again, and have gone back to datamining PLO8 at full tilt, however I sat in a couple of PLO8 25 games yesterday to reaquaint myself, and donked off a stack with 2nd nut low and a janky hi against the rock of Gibralter. Who of course had nut-nut. So I need to get back into a rhythm, but I don't suppose that will be too much of a problem (I hope)

Also of note this week, EM took down her first 180 person SNG at Stars. She had final tabled a bunch of them, and had a couple seconds, but the elusive 1st place prize has finally been attained. No stopping her now, look out leaderboard.

I tried to qualiify for a few FTOPS events, but have always come up short. I should give up on attempting to qualify and just buy in. But I won't. The poker bankroll has been somewhat depleted by financial needs of the family and an extended break-even streak (most of which I attribute to having computer problems, which are now fixed). Time to get back to the grind.

Played this one hard2tel style, 13 rebuys and a double add-on, needed to finish 6th to get my money out of it.

[16:29] <GreaterThanU> how'd you beat all the $2r pros?
[16:30] <h2t> he obv lucksacked his way through the field...hard2tel style

Congrats on the great finish!